Has the Rise of the Religious “Nones” in America Plateaued? What the Latest Data Means for the Church
Has the Rise of the Religious “Nones” in America Plateaued?
For more than three decades, the narrative seemed unstoppable: America was becoming less religious at an accelerating pace. The percentage of Americans identifying with no religious affiliation—often called the “nones”—kept climbing. Pastors felt it. Parents worried about it. Researchers documented it.
But something unexpected may be happening. Recent national survey data suggests the dramatic rise of the religiously unaffiliated may be slowing or even plateauing. If that is true, we are not watching the end of faith in America. We may be witnessing a recalibration. And that matters deeply for how the church engages single adults and the next generation.
The Long Rise of the “Nones”
To understand the moment, we need context.
According to the General Social Survey (GSS), the share of Americans with no religious affiliation was just 5% in 1972. By 1991, it was 6%. But then the shift accelerated. By 2021, it had reached 28%. That is more than a fourfold increase over three decades.
(Source: General Social Survey, NORC at the University of Chicago:
https://gss.norc.org)
Similarly, Pew Research Center reports that 28% of U.S. adults identified as religiously unaffiliated in 2023, essentially unchanged from 2020 levels.(Source: Pew Research Center, 2023: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2024/01/24/religious-landscape-study/)
For years, the story was simple: religious affiliation was declining, and the “nones” were growing rapidly. But when we zoom into the most recent data—from sources like the Cooperative Election Study and Pew’s National Public Opinion Reference Survey—the increases appear to have stalled. The numbers are hovering, not exploding.
That shift may not make headlines. But it is significant.
What About Gen Z and Millennials?
Much of the anxiety around American religion centers on younger generations. If Gen Z is dramatically less religious than Millennials, and Millennials far less religious than Gen X, then generational replacement alone would ensure continued decline.
But the newest data complicates that assumption.
Recent findings suggest that Generation Z and Millennials exhibit remarkably similar religious compositions. Roughly:
- Around 40% identify as Protestant or Catholic.
- Approximately 15% identify as atheist or agnostic.
- Around 25–30% identify as “nothing in particular.”
The dramatic cliff many feared may not be there. Yes, Protestants represent a smaller share of Gen Z than of older generations. But the percentage identifying as atheist or agnostic is not wildly higher than Millennials. And the share of Catholics remains surprisingly stable across generations—hovering around 20%.
This does not mean Gen Z is spiritually vibrant in a traditional sense. It does mean the freefall may be leveling. And that creates opportunity.
Why the Plateau?
We must be careful not to oversimplify. But several possible explanations stand out.
1. The “Marginally Attached” Effect
For decades, many Americans maintained loose affiliation with religion. Cultural Christianity still carried social weight. As that cultural pressure faded, marginally attached individuals likely felt freer to select “no religion” on surveys.
Once those loosely affiliated people made that shift, the pool of potential “switchers” shrank. What remains are individuals with deeper conviction—either toward faith or toward non-affiliation. In other words, the soft soil may already have been scraped away.
2. Demographic Realities
Generational replacement still matters. Older Americans—who tend to be more religious—are gradually being replaced by younger cohorts who are less religious overall. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Millennials and Gen Z now make up a majority of the adult population.
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau:
https://www.census.gov) But the generational gap may be narrower than many expected.
3. Cultural Exhaustion with Extremes
We are living in a moment of polarization—politically and culturally. Some may be exhausted by ideological extremes and open to deeper conversations about meaning, identity, and belonging. That does not guarantee church attendance. But it does create space.
The Protestant Decline and What It Means
One of the clearest trends across generations is the decline in Protestant identification. Among the Silent Generation, nearly half identified as Protestant. Among Gen Z, that number is closer to one in five. Catholic identification, however, has remained more stable across generations.
This tells us something important: the broad Protestant cultural framework that once shaped American life has weakened dramatically. But religious identity as such has not disappeared. For ministries focused on single adults, this matters. Single adults are not primarily rejecting God. Many are disengaging from inherited cultural forms that feel distant, politicized, or relationally thin.
They are not hostile to faith as much as unconvinced that it offers authentic belonging.
What This Means for Single Adults
Single adults represent a growing share of the U.S. population. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, nearly 47% of adults in the United States are unmarried. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2023: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/unmarried-women-men.html) At the same time, social isolation is increasing. The U.S. Surgeon General declared loneliness a public health crisis in 2023, noting that roughly half of U.S. adults report experiencing measurable levels of loneliness. (Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2023 Advisory: https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/surgeon-general-social-connection-advisory.pdf)
Here is the paradox: religious affiliation may be plateauing, but loneliness is rising. That creates a profound opening for the local church. If the rise of the nones has slowed, it may be because the cultural “sorting” has largely finished. What remains is a generation searching for substance, not slogans.
Single adults are not looking for a church program that treats them as incomplete. They are looking for a community that reflects Christ’s sufficiency. And we must remember this: Jesus was single. Paul was single. The early church flourished with unmarried leaders shaping its theology and mission. Following Christ is not a prelude to marriage. It is the center of life itself.
A Measured Hope for the Church
It would be naïve to declare victory. Religious participation has declined significantly since the 1990s. Church attendance remains lower than in prior decades. Pew reports that only about 30% of U.S. adults attend religious services monthly or more. (Source: Pew Research Center: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion)
But panic is not warranted either. If the rapid rise of the nones has slowed, then we may be entering a new era not of cultural Christianity, but of clarified discipleship. The next decades may not be about numerical dominance. They may be about spiritual depth. For Table for One Ministries, this means we do not retreat. We lean in.
Single adults are not outside the story. They are essential to it. If Protestant identity has weakened culturally, then relational discipleship becomes even more central. The ground is harder now. But the roots may grow deeper. And that is not the end of faith in America. It may be the beginning of something more honest.
FAQ: Religious “Nones” and American Faith Trends
What are religious “nones”?
Religious “nones” are individuals who identify as atheist, agnostic, or “nothing in particular” when asked about religious affiliation.
Are religious “nones” still increasing in America?
Recent data from Pew Research Center and the General Social Survey suggests the rapid growth of religious “nones” may have plateaued around 28–30%.
Is Gen Z less religious than Millennials?
Gen Z is somewhat less Protestant than older generations, but recent data shows Gen Z and Millennials have very similar overall religious compositions.
What percentage of Americans have no religious affiliation?
As of 2023, approximately 28% of U.S. adults identify as religiously unaffiliated, according to Pew Research Center.
Why are fewer Americans identifying as Protestant?
Cultural shifts, declining institutional trust, and generational replacement have contributed to a significant decline in Protestant identification across generations.
Is church attendance declining in the United States?
Yes. Around 30% of Americans report attending religious services monthly or more, a significant decline from prior decades.
